Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.1%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Hayes 51.7% (+0.0%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Nelson
Hayes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
51.6% (386)
-0.3%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
53.2% (47)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
60.0% (20)
-8.1%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (300).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
52.5% (590)
50.5% (200)
Away
51.7% (619)
53.4% (253)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
50.5%
58.8%
P2
54.4%
49.3%
P3
51.4%
48.0%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%