Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +14.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Hayes 42.7% (+14.8%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.9%
55.9%
44.1%
Nelson
Hayes
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
31.9% (91)
+18.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
64.3% (14)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
0.0% (1)
+43.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +43.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 39.7% vs left-shot opponents (58).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
52.3% (621)
30.6% (49)
Away
48.9% (618)
40.4% (57)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
48.4%
22.9%
P2
53.5%
40.0%
P3
50.3%
44.4%
Final 5 min
50.8%
30.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%