Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Hayes 49.5% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 52.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Nelson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Nelson
Hayes
Last 8: Nelson 3-5 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
3
Nelson
Hayes
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Hayes
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
48.5% (557)
-1.6%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
53.3% (107)
+4.1%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
58.3% (12)
-33.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +33.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (439).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
48.9% (521)
50.8% (313)
Away
45.5% (516)
48.2% (363)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
45.9%
52.3%
P2
48.0%
47.7%
P3
48.0%
48.4%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
50.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 07:08 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 14:19 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 08:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |