Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.7%). Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 20 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Hayes 47.7% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 48-42 in 90 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 53.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 57.3%
Neutral zone
Hayes 56.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 56.0%
44.0%
56.0%
Nelson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
42
-
48
(90 meetings)
42
48
Nelson
Hayes
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
7
13
Nelson
Hayes
20 total
Defensive Zone
Even
15
15
Nelson
Hayes
30 total
Neutral Zone
Even
20
20
Nelson
Hayes
40 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
47.5% (6,708)
+0.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
51.7% (702)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
45.3% (697)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
50.0% (5,845)
48.1% (3,982)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.3% (4,125)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
48.7%
47.5%
P2
48.5%
47.6%
P3
47.7%
47.9%
OT
45.6%
54.1%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 13:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 07:20 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 07:08 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 14:19 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 1 | 08:53 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 16:21 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 2 | 03:55 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 2 | 14:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 17, 2022 | 1 | 09:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 18, 2021 | OT | 01:39 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 18, 2021 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2021 | OT | 01:52 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |