Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +11.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Hayes shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Hayes 56.3% (-11.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 56.9%
Defensive zone
Hayes 68.6%
Neutral zone
Hayes 52.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Nelson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Nelson
Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
1
Nelson
Hayes
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Hayes
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
56.6% (724)
-10.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
57.0% (79)
-22.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
65.7% (35)
-35.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +35.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
48.7% (419)
58.0% (405)
Away
41.3% (368)
56.1% (433)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
44.6%
54.7%
P2
47.3%
55.7%
P3
43.0%
60.2%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
58.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |