Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.0%). Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Hayes 49.1% (+0.4%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 14-7 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 59.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 61.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 62.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 61.7%
38.3%
61.7%
Nelson
Hayes
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
14
(21 meetings)
7
14
Nelson
Hayes
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Hayes
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
0
3
Nelson
Hayes
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
4
Nelson
Hayes
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
7
Nelson
Hayes
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Hayes
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
48.7% (394)
-0.2%
Power Play
51.9% (81)
61.2% (49)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
34.3% (35)
+23.2%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +23.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hayes shoots left. Nelson is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (350).
Nelson shoots left. Hayes is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (223).
Home / Away
Nelson
Hayes
Home
55.0% (362)
50.6% (237)
Away
43.5% (345)
47.3% (241)
By Period
Nelson
Hayes
P1
49.3%
43.9%
P2
53.6%
47.3%
P3
46.0%
55.9%
OT
33.3%
75.0%
Final 5 min
48.7%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
49.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 18, 2021 | OT | 01:39 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 18, 2021 | 2 | 19:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 8, 2021 | 3 | 10:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2021 | OT | 01:52 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 16:40 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 10:32 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 3 | 06:38 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 3, 2021 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 3 | 04:06 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 14:00 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 08:41 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 22, 2021 | 1 | 00:19 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 15:35 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 10:08 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2021 | 1 | 10:03 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 3 | 14:27 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 18, 2021 | 1 | 00:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 3 | 06:14 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 30, 2021 | 2 | 17:03 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |