Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Reichel 41.6% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 92.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 89.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 92.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 91.1%
91.1%
8.9%
Nelson
Reichel
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Nelson
Reichel
Last 8: Nelson 7-1 Reichel
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Reichel
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Reichel
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Reichel
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Reichel
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
40.1% (668)
+7.8%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
48.2% (56)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
0.0% (6)
+43.8%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +43.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reichel shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Reichel is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (446).
Home / Away
Nelson
Reichel
Home
50.0% (5,845)
41.2% (410)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
39.4% (320)
By Period
Nelson
Reichel
P1
48.7%
41.9%
P2
48.5%
36.3%
P3
47.7%
42.8%
OT
45.6%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
36.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Reichel
42.0%▲
40.0%
40.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 10:11 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 2 | 08:08 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 15:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 13:15 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 9, 2025 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Lukas Reichel |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 06:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |