Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 48.0%). Look for Scheifele on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Scheifele 48.1% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 65.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 51.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.2%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 55.2%
44.8%
55.2%
Nelson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Scheifele
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Scheifele
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
4
Nelson
Scheifele
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Scheifele
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
47.8% (960)
-0.9%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
47.0% (219)
+10.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
60.7% (28)
-35.7%
On penalty kill, Scheifele has a +35.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Scheifele is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Nelson
Scheifele
Home
48.9% (521)
50.7% (611)
Away
45.5% (516)
45.1% (596)
By Period
Nelson
Scheifele
P1
45.9%
51.4%
P2
48.0%
47.3%
P3
48.0%
45.0%
OT
33.3%
53.8%
Final 5 min
45.3%
44.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2023 | 1 | 18:28 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 3 | 15:07 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:05 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 2 | 18:05 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 2 | 06:03 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 1 | 14:50 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 1 | 14:45 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 1 | 07:23 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 22, 2023 | 1 | 03:37 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |