Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 31 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Scheifele 46.8% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 46-39 in 85 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 68.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.7%
Neutral zone
Scheifele 54.0%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 56.7%
43.3%
56.7%
Nelson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
39
-
46
(85 meetings)
39
46
Nelson
Scheifele
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
10
21
Nelson
Scheifele
31 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
19
13
Nelson
Scheifele
32 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
10
12
Nelson
Scheifele
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
46.3% (12,036)
+1.6%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.2% (2,563)
+4.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.6% (598)
+2.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +4.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Scheifele is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (10,821).
Home / Away
Nelson
Scheifele
Home
50.0% (5,845)
48.9% (7,644)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
44.7% (7,554)
By Period
Nelson
Scheifele
P1
48.7%
48.2%
P2
48.5%
45.6%
P3
47.7%
46.8%
OT
45.6%
42.5%
Final 5 min
47.8%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 06:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:19 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |