Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Scheifele on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Scheifele shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Scheifele 49.5% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Scheifele leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 73.2%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.4%
Result
Mark Scheifele favored at 55.9%
44.1%
55.9%
Nelson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
10
(18 meetings)
8
10
Nelson
Scheifele
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
3
4
Nelson
Scheifele
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
2
3
Nelson
Scheifele
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Nelson
Scheifele
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
48.7% (981)
+2.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
53.2% (250)
+5.5%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
43.2% (37)
+8.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Scheifele is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (925).
Home / Away
Nelson
Scheifele
Home
52.5% (590)
50.0% (672)
Away
51.7% (619)
48.8% (596)
By Period
Nelson
Scheifele
P1
50.5%
51.4%
P2
54.4%
45.1%
P3
51.4%
51.9%
OT
47.4%
58.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:26 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:59 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 09:55 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 15:09 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 07:56 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 2 | 01:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 06:44 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 1 | 03:37 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 11:07 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:10 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:56 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 18:23 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 12:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 05:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |