Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (88% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Scheifele 47.2% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Scheifele 59.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 79.9%
Neutral zone
Nelson 65.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 66.7%
66.7%
33.3%
Nelson
Scheifele
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Nelson
Scheifele
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Scheifele
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Scheifele
1
3
Nelson
Scheifele
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
1
Nelson
Scheifele
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Scheifele
0
2
Nelson
Scheifele
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Scheifele
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
46.5% (878)
+4.2%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
48.3% (174)
+10.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
50.0% (54)
-6.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Scheifele shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Scheifele is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Home / Away
Nelson
Scheifele
Home
52.3% (621)
46.2% (571)
Away
48.9% (618)
47.7% (535)
By Period
Nelson
Scheifele
P1
48.4%
51.9%
P2
53.5%
45.6%
P3
50.3%
43.9%
OT
41.2%
27.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Scheifele
50.0%▬
51.0%
46.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 17:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:15 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 3 | 11:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 18:28 | Defensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 12:48 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 09:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 14, 2026 | 1 | 00:54 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 06:20 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 3 | 02:43 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 08:19 | Neutral | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 2 | 00:26 | Offensive | Mark Scheifele |
| Dec 19, 2025 | 1 | 10:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |