Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Duchene 52.8% (-4.7%)
Offensive zone
Duchene 70.9%
Defensive zone
Nelson 76.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 67.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.6%
57.6%
42.4%
Nelson
Duchene
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
46.9% (162)
+3.0%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
73.2% (56)
-20.4%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
100.0% (2)
-71.4%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +71.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Duchene is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (115).
Home / Away
Nelson
Duchene
Home
49.8% (458)
58.4% (125)
Away
49.0% (506)
48.4% (95)
By Period
Nelson
Duchene
P1
50.1%
56.9%
P2
45.4%
52.5%
P3
52.7%
51.9%
OT
33.3%
80.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.1%