Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.4%). Look for Duchene on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Duchene 52.1% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Duchene leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 51.9%
Defensive zone
Duchene 53.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.3%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Nelson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Nelson
Duchene
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Duchene
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
3
Nelson
Duchene
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
1
2
Nelson
Duchene
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
53.0% (723)
-1.7%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
49.5% (101)
+9.2%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
43.8% (16)
+8.1%
On power play, Nelson has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Duchene is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (517).
Home / Away
Nelson
Duchene
Home
52.5% (590)
54.9% (408)
Away
51.7% (619)
50.0% (432)
By Period
Nelson
Duchene
P1
50.5%
52.5%
P2
54.4%
51.7%
P3
51.4%
53.6%
OT
47.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 14:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |