Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Duchene 52.1% (-5.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 71.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 62.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 52.3%
47.7%
52.3%
Nelson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Duchene
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Duchene
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Nelson
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
53.9% (193)
-7.0%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
49.2% (65)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
100.0% (1)
-75.0%
On penalty kill, Duchene has a +75.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Duchene is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (154).
Home / Away
Nelson
Duchene
Home
48.9% (521)
54.9% (113)
Away
45.5% (516)
51.4% (146)
By Period
Nelson
Duchene
P1
45.9%
54.9%
P2
48.0%
52.7%
P3
48.0%
51.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.3%
60.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2022 | 3 | 03:57 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 2, 2022 | 2 | 15:31 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:31 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |