Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Duchene shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Duchene 55.6% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 50.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 50.4%
Neutral zone
Duchene 51.5%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Nelson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nelson
Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Duchene
0
1
Nelson
Duchene
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
56.5% (566)
-10.4%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
61.3% (62)
-26.8%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
22.2% (9)
+8.2%
On power play, Duchene has a +26.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Duchene is 58.3% vs left-shot opponents (386).
Home / Away
Nelson
Duchene
Home
48.7% (419)
56.6% (318)
Away
41.3% (368)
56.4% (319)
By Period
Nelson
Duchene
P1
44.6%
57.2%
P2
47.3%
55.1%
P3
43.0%
55.6%
OT
100.0%
81.3%
Final 5 min
39.4%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2024 | 2 | 13:03 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |