Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Duchene 51.6% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Duchene 54.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.7%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Nelson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Duchene
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Duchene
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Duchene
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
1
Nelson
Duchene
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
51.2% (324)
-0.5%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
60.4% (53)
-1.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
16.7% (6)
+26.7%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +26.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Duchene is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (242).
Home / Away
Nelson
Duchene
Home
52.3% (621)
51.6% (182)
Away
48.9% (618)
52.2% (201)
By Period
Nelson
Duchene
P1
48.4%
49.6%
P2
53.5%
56.2%
P3
50.3%
48.6%
OT
41.2%
60.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
51.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 14:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 02:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |