Scouting Report
Matt Duchene holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (53% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Duchene 54.1% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 31-30 in 61 meetings
Offensive zone
Duchene 65.3%
Defensive zone
Duchene 56.8%
Neutral zone
Duchene 60.2%
Result
Matt Duchene favored at 60.1%
39.9%
60.1%
Nelson
Duchene
Head-to-Head Record
31
-
30
(61 meetings)
31
30
Nelson
Duchene
Last 10: Nelson 6-4 Duchene
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
7
Nelson
Duchene
15 total
Defensive Zone
Even
12
12
Nelson
Duchene
24 total
Neutral Zone
Even
11
11
Nelson
Duchene
22 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Duchene
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
53.9% (10,396)
-6.0%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
56.9% (1,665)
-2.4%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
49.1% (468)
-5.3%
On even strength, Duchene has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Duchene shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Duchene is 53.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,059).
Home / Away
Nelson
Duchene
Home
50.0% (5,845)
55.6% (6,411)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
52.7% (6,142)
By Period
Nelson
Duchene
P1
48.7%
54.5%
P2
48.5%
54.5%
P3
47.7%
53.4%
OT
45.6%
56.3%
Final 5 min
47.8%
53.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Duchene
44.0%▼
52.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2026 | 3 | 03:06 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 17:26 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 14:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 18, 2026 | 1 | 02:06 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 11:22 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 05:20 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 19:11 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 3 | 14:12 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:13 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Neutral | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 2 | 13:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 11:37 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:18 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:53 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Feb 23, 2025 | 1 | 00:44 | Offensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 3 | 08:23 | Defensive | Matt Duchene |
| Oct 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:58 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |