Scouting Report
Matty Beniers holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Beniers shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Beniers 47.6% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 51.3%
Defensive zone
Beniers 53.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.2%
51.2%
48.8%
Nelson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
1
(4 meetings)
3
1
Nelson
Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Beniers
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Beniers
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
47.3% (945)
-1.2%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
51.7% (145)
-17.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
23.8% (21)
+6.6%
On power play, Beniers has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Beniers is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (718).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beniers
Home
48.7% (419)
49.6% (565)
Away
41.3% (368)
45.2% (546)
By Period
Nelson
Beniers
P1
44.6%
48.0%
P2
47.3%
49.0%
P3
43.0%
46.5%
OT
100.0%
23.5%
Final 5 min
39.4%
51.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2024 | OT | 00:36 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 3 | 06:08 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Feb 13, 2024 | 1 | 11:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2023 | OT | 04:16 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |