Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Beniers on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Beniers 49.4% (+1.3%)
H2H factor
Beniers leads 11-3 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Beniers 72.4%
Defensive zone
Beniers 72.2%
Neutral zone
Beniers 73.5%
Result
Matty Beniers favored at 72.5%
27.5%
72.5%
Nelson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
11
(14 meetings)
3
11
Nelson
Beniers
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
1
6
Nelson
Beniers
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
2
3
Nelson
Beniers
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Beniers
0
2
Nelson
Beniers
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
48.9% (833)
+1.8%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
58.3% (36)
+0.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
50.0% (32)
-6.6%
On penalty kill, Beniers has a +6.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Beniers is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beniers
Home
52.3% (621)
52.4% (460)
Away
48.9% (618)
46.0% (441)
By Period
Nelson
Beniers
P1
48.4%
48.4%
P2
53.5%
51.1%
P3
50.3%
47.8%
OT
41.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
50.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:53 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:56 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |