Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Beniers 46.7% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 18-16 in 34 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 54.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 55.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
Nelson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
18
-
16
(34 meetings)
18
16
Nelson
Beniers
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Beniers
6
8
Nelson
Beniers
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
6
Nelson
Beniers
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
2
Nelson
Beniers
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
46.6% (3,796)
+1.3%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
47.8% (360)
+6.7%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
41.4% (111)
+2.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Beniers is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,820).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beniers
Home
50.0% (5,845)
48.9% (2,195)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
44.2% (2,072)
By Period
Nelson
Beniers
P1
48.7%
47.4%
P2
48.5%
47.1%
P3
47.7%
45.7%
OT
45.6%
34.1%
Final 5 min
47.8%
46.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
46.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 00:52 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 2 | 03:07 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 14:34 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 10:53 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 08:39 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 02:39 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 00:36 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:50 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 3 | 09:24 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:06 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 2 | 04:57 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 04:56 | Neutral | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 01:12 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 02:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 13:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:07 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |