Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Beniers 47.8% (+4.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 80.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 80.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.6%
69.6%
30.4%
Nelson
Beniers
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
4
(11 meetings)
7
4
Nelson
Beniers
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Beniers
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Beniers
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Beniers
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Beniers
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Beniers
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
48.3% (1,050)
+3.0%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
42.9% (105)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
43.6% (39)
+8.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Beniers shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Beniers is 49.1% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Home / Away
Nelson
Beniers
Home
52.5% (590)
48.7% (630)
Away
51.7% (619)
46.5% (564)
By Period
Nelson
Beniers
P1
50.5%
49.2%
P2
54.4%
45.0%
P3
51.4%
49.3%
OT
47.4%
22.2%
Final 5 min
57.3%
45.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Beniers
44.0%▼
50.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 5, 2024 | 2 | 02:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:48 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 5, 2024 | 1 | 03:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 13:33 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:07 | Offensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 05:02 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 2 | 09:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 13:38 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 16, 2024 | 1 | 09:56 | Defensive | Matty Beniers |