Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Granlund 48.4% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 60.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 60.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.6%
60.6%
39.4%
Nelson
Granlund
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Granlund
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Granlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
0
1
Nelson
Granlund
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Granlund
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Granlund
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Granlund
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
48.7% (446)
+2.0%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
56.6% (99)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
31.1% (61)
+12.3%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +12.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Granlund shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Granlund is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Home / Away
Nelson
Granlund
Home
52.3% (621)
53.3% (255)
Away
48.9% (618)
44.4% (351)
By Period
Nelson
Granlund
P1
48.4%
51.3%
P2
53.5%
48.8%
P3
50.3%
44.4%
OT
41.2%
55.6%
Final 5 min
50.8%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 15:11 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 12:50 | Offensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |