Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Frost 48.7% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 62.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 62.8%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 60.5%
60.5%
39.5%
Nelson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
2
(9 meetings)
7
2
Nelson
Frost
Last 9: Nelson 7-2 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Frost
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
47.4% (426)
+2.5%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
63.9% (36)
-11.1%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
20.0% (5)
+8.6%
On power play, Frost has a +11.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (646).
Nelson shoots left. Frost is 49.7% vs left-shot opponents (312).
Home / Away
Nelson
Frost
Home
49.8% (458)
51.1% (221)
Away
49.0% (506)
45.9% (246)
By Period
Nelson
Frost
P1
50.1%
47.5%
P2
45.4%
52.3%
P3
52.7%
44.7%
OT
33.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.1%
43.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 16:13 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 16:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 3 | 01:37 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 17:07 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 13:26 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 20, 2022 | 1 | 10:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 2 | 01:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 25, 2022 | 2 | 01:30 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |