Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Frost 46.2% (+1.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 57.9%
Defensive zone
Frost 56.7%
Neutral zone
Frost 57.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Nelson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Nelson
Frost
Last 7: Nelson 2-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
1
3
Nelson
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Nelson
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
45.6% (833)
+1.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
46.0% (100)
+11.4%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
55.6% (18)
-30.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +30.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Nelson is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (713).
Nelson shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Home / Away
Nelson
Frost
Home
48.9% (521)
47.0% (440)
Away
45.5% (516)
44.8% (511)
By Period
Nelson
Frost
P1
45.9%
42.5%
P2
48.0%
47.9%
P3
48.0%
46.6%
OT
33.3%
66.7%
Final 5 min
45.3%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 3 | 13:42 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 29, 2022 | 2 | 05:50 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 11:31 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 08:25 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 26, 2022 | 2 | 03:30 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |