Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 51.2%). Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Frost 51.1% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 16-11 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 70.1%
Defensive zone
Nelson 61.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.3%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Nelson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
16
(27 meetings)
11
16
Nelson
Frost
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
6
Nelson
Frost
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
5
6
Nelson
Frost
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Nelson
Frost
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
50.3% (825)
+1.0%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
54.9% (204)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
50.0% (4)
+1.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Frost is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (697).
Home / Away
Nelson
Frost
Home
52.5% (590)
50.7% (489)
Away
51.7% (619)
51.7% (544)
By Period
Nelson
Frost
P1
50.5%
53.6%
P2
54.4%
47.8%
P3
51.4%
52.0%
OT
47.4%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.3%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:14 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 12:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 04:51 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |