Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Frost 49.5% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 63.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 50.7%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.0%
51.0%
49.0%
Nelson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Nelson
Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Frost
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Frost
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Nelson
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
48.6% (704)
-2.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
55.7% (115)
-21.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
25.0% (4)
+5.4%
On power play, Frost has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Home / Away
Nelson
Frost
Home
48.7% (419)
49.9% (399)
Away
41.3% (368)
49.1% (424)
By Period
Nelson
Frost
P1
44.6%
51.2%
P2
47.3%
53.9%
P3
43.0%
42.7%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1, 2024 | 2 | 17:54 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 25, 2023 | OT | 04:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 12:54 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 25, 2023 | 2 | 09:55 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |