Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Frost 50.3% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 25-22 in 47 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 63.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 66.8%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Nelson
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
25
(47 meetings)
22
25
Nelson
Frost
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
6
10
Nelson
Frost
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
8
9
Nelson
Frost
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
6
Nelson
Frost
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.4% (3,598)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
55.5% (625)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
52.8% (36)
-9.0%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +9.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Home / Away
Nelson
Frost
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.0% (2,047)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
49.7% (2,212)
By Period
Nelson
Frost
P1
48.7%
50.8%
P2
48.5%
51.1%
P3
47.7%
48.5%
OT
45.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
48.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:51 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 11:29 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 17:43 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 13:00 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 17:14 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 17:39 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 04:15 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 03:57 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 11:06 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 12:19 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 04:51 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 30, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 19:54 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 24, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |