Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.8% vs Foligno 54.6% (-8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 54.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 69.2%
Neutral zone
Nelson 64.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 59.9%
59.9%
40.1%
Nelson
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Nelson
Foligno
Last 5: Nelson 2-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
2
Nelson
Foligno
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
47.4% (1,020)
63.3% (120)
-15.9%
Power Play
51.5% (163)
49.5% (95)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (63)
50.0% (20)
-7.1%
On even strength, Foligno has a +15.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Nelson is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (821).
Nelson shoots left. Foligno is 61.1% vs left-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
Nelson
Foligno
Home
51.0% (641)
57.5% (120)
Away
44.1% (605)
55.7% (115)
By Period
Nelson
Foligno
P1
48.2%
52.1%
P2
48.1%
61.1%
P3
46.9%
55.6%
OT
42.9%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.6%
60.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.7%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 26, 2019 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 07:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 01:01 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |