Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Foligno 48.6% (+3.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 83.5%
Defensive zone
Nelson 59.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 75.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 70.0%
70.0%
30.0%
Nelson
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Foligno
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Foligno
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
48.7% (495)
+2.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
56.9% (65)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
43.8% (144)
+8.1%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Foligno is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (506).
Home / Away
Nelson
Foligno
Home
52.5% (590)
49.6% (359)
Away
51.7% (619)
47.2% (345)
By Period
Nelson
Foligno
P1
50.5%
46.7%
P2
54.4%
52.7%
P3
51.4%
46.7%
OT
47.4%
33.3%
Final 5 min
57.3%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 08:20 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |