Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 49.7%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Foligno 49.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.7%
Defensive zone
Nelson 53.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 57.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 57.9%
57.9%
42.1%
Nelson
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Nelson
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
49.0% (261)
+1.7%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
57.1% (42)
+1.5%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
47.1% (51)
-3.7%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Nelson
Foligno
Home
52.3% (621)
48.9% (178)
Away
48.9% (618)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Nelson
Foligno
P1
48.4%
40.4%
P2
53.5%
55.8%
P3
50.3%
51.2%
OT
41.2%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |