Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 48.6%). Look for Foligno on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Foligno 48.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 17-15 in 32 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 57.6%
Defensive zone
Nelson 52.5%
Neutral zone
Foligno 51.5%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Nelson
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
17
(32 meetings)
15
17
Nelson
Foligno
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
8
7
Nelson
Foligno
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
4
Nelson
Foligno
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
6
Nelson
Foligno
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.3% (2,810)
-0.4%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
52.3% (730)
+2.2%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
44.0% (455)
-0.2%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Nelson is 48.9% vs left-shot opponents (7,533).
Nelson shoots left. Foligno is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,496).
Home / Away
Nelson
Foligno
Home
50.0% (5,845)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
Nelson
Foligno
P1
48.7%
47.6%
P2
48.5%
50.4%
P3
47.7%
48.3%
OT
45.6%
29.7%
Final 5 min
47.8%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 16:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:44 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 28, 2026 | 3 | 18:33 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Apr 2, 2025 | 2 | 04:34 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 3 | 04:35 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 19:58 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 08:20 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 10, 2025 | 1 | 00:10 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 03:47 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 26, 2019 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 11, 2019 | 1 | 07:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 11:11 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 3 | 01:01 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 14, 2019 | 1 | 08:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |