Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Foligno 52.0% (-7.2%)
Offensive zone
Foligno 61.4%
Defensive zone
Nelson 63.5%
Neutral zone
Foligno 52.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Nelson
Foligno
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
53.4% (249)
-7.3%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
53.2% (154)
-18.7%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
40.6% (32)
-10.2%
On power play, Foligno has a +18.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Foligno is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Nelson
Foligno
Home
48.7% (419)
57.3% (225)
Away
41.3% (368)
47.1% (210)
By Period
Nelson
Foligno
P1
44.6%
53.0%
P2
47.3%
51.8%
P3
43.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
39.4%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%