Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.6% vs Foligno 49.9% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.3%
Defensive zone
Nelson 84.4%
Neutral zone
Nelson 58.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 69.7%
69.7%
30.3%
Nelson
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Nelson
Foligno
Last 6: Nelson 4-2 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
0
Nelson
Foligno
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Nelson
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (902)
47.0% (202)
+3.7%
Power Play
59.8% (169)
57.9% (95)
+1.9%
Penalty Kill
48.3% (116)
40.9% (22)
+7.4%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Nelson is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (733).
Nelson shoots left. Foligno is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Nelson
Foligno
Home
53.6% (603)
50.6% (162)
Away
49.9% (585)
49.0% (157)
By Period
Nelson
Foligno
P1
55.4%
48.9%
P2
47.2%
47.8%
P3
52.6%
53.8%
OT
51.6%
37.5%
Final 5 min
54.1%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
51.8%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 03:47 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 30, 2019 | 3 | 03:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 16:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 3 | 16:06 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 19, 2019 | 2 | 16:27 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |