Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.4% vs 49.6%). Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Suzuki 49.6% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 53.3%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 54.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.7%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Nelson
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Nelson
Suzuki
Last 9: Nelson 6-3 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Suzuki
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
0
Nelson
Suzuki
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
2
Nelson
Suzuki
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
49.9% (840)
50.3% (1,075)
-0.4%
Power Play
52.8% (89)
49.3% (219)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
43.1% (116)
-14.5%
On penalty kill, Suzuki has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Nelson is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (318).
Nelson shoots left. Suzuki is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (1,008).
Home / Away
Nelson
Suzuki
Home
49.8% (458)
53.6% (711)
Away
49.0% (506)
45.5% (699)
By Period
Nelson
Suzuki
P1
50.1%
48.5%
P2
45.4%
51.7%
P3
52.7%
49.0%
OT
33.3%
43.5%
Final 5 min
47.1%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2022 | 3 | 18:04 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:46 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 3 | 11:39 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 3 | 13:32 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2022 | 1 | 09:01 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 3 | 11:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 2 | 07:54 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 4, 2021 | 1 | 18:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |