Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 50.3%). Look for Suzuki on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Suzuki 50.3% (+0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Suzuki 62.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 65.9%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 51.3%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 52.7%
47.3%
52.7%
Nelson
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Suzuki
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
1
3
Nelson
Suzuki
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
2
Nelson
Suzuki
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
51.3% (904)
-0.6%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
49.8% (265)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
36.8% (57)
+6.6%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Suzuki is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (921).
Home / Away
Nelson
Suzuki
Home
52.3% (621)
50.6% (603)
Away
48.9% (618)
50.1% (623)
By Period
Nelson
Suzuki
P1
48.4%
52.3%
P2
53.5%
47.5%
P3
50.3%
51.1%
OT
41.2%
48.6%
Final 5 min
50.8%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |