Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.3% vs 47.3%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Suzuki 47.5% (+0.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 55.3%
Defensive zone
Suzuki 60.6%
Neutral zone
Nelson 51.0%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Nelson
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Nelson
Suzuki
Last 8: Nelson 4-4 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Suzuki
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
1
Nelson
Suzuki
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
47.0% (1,066)
-0.1%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
49.5% (204)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
46.6% (131)
-21.6%
On penalty kill, Suzuki has a +21.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Suzuki is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,005).
Home / Away
Nelson
Suzuki
Home
48.9% (521)
49.4% (686)
Away
45.5% (516)
45.3% (715)
By Period
Nelson
Suzuki
P1
45.9%
45.6%
P2
48.0%
46.9%
P3
48.0%
49.8%
OT
33.3%
38.1%
Final 5 min
45.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
47.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2023 | 3 | 04:45 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 2 | 19:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 12, 2023 | 1 | 01:38 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:20 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 09:29 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 3 | 03:39 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 2 | 13:39 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |