Scouting Report
Nick Suzuki holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 17 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Suzuki 49.3% (-1.0%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 24-22 in 46 meetings
Offensive zone
Suzuki 60.8%
Defensive zone
Nelson 54.0%
Neutral zone
Suzuki 55.9%
Result
Nick Suzuki favored at 54.4%
45.6%
54.4%
Nelson
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
24
-
22
(46 meetings)
24
22
Nelson
Suzuki
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
11
9
Nelson
Suzuki
20 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
10
7
Nelson
Suzuki
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
3
6
Nelson
Suzuki
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
49.4% (6,327)
-1.5%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
50.7% (1,338)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
43.6% (456)
+0.2%
On power play, Nelson has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Suzuki is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (5,913).
Home / Away
Nelson
Suzuki
Home
50.0% (5,845)
51.0% (3,997)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.6% (4,124)
By Period
Nelson
Suzuki
P1
48.7%
48.8%
P2
48.5%
49.1%
P3
47.7%
50.2%
OT
45.6%
44.4%
Final 5 min
47.8%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 3 | 11:17 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 08:48 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Jan 29, 2026 | 2 | 03:14 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:04 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Nov 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:13 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:21 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Apr 11, 2024 | 3 | 01:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |