Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 51.6%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Suzuki shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Suzuki 51.5% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Suzuki 62.0%
Defensive zone
Nelson 64.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 50.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Nelson
Suzuki
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Nelson
Suzuki
Last 10: Nelson 5-5 Suzuki
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
3
2
Nelson
Suzuki
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
4
3
Nelson
Suzuki
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Suzuki
0
1
Nelson
Suzuki
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Suzuki
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
52.4% (981)
-1.1%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.7% (304)
+8.0%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
36.4% (33)
+15.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Suzuki shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Suzuki is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (976).
Home / Away
Nelson
Suzuki
Home
52.5% (590)
53.2% (645)
Away
51.7% (619)
50.1% (673)
By Period
Nelson
Suzuki
P1
50.5%
48.9%
P2
54.4%
51.5%
P3
51.4%
54.9%
OT
47.4%
25.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Suzuki
62.0%▲
55.5%
51.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:52 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:14 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:07 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 01:02 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 18:24 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 3 | 19:42 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 18:55 | Neutral | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:21 | Defensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 15:16 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 2 | 06:49 | Offensive | Nick Suzuki |
| Dec 3, 2024 | 1 | 01:28 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |