Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Acciari 53.9% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Acciari leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 91.2%
Defensive zone
Acciari 73.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 61.5%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Nelson
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Acciari
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Acciari
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
1
4
Nelson
Acciari
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
3
Nelson
Acciari
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
55.6% (426)
-9.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
0.0% (2)
+34.5%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
52.1% (146)
-21.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +34.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Acciari is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (444).
Home / Away
Nelson
Acciari
Home
48.7% (419)
55.2% (306)
Away
41.3% (368)
53.7% (268)
By Period
Nelson
Acciari
P1
44.6%
55.5%
P2
47.3%
54.3%
P3
43.0%
54.1%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
39.4%
47.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 01:57 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 05:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 16:37 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 1 | 01:14 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |