Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.6% vs 51.4%). Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Acciari 51.2% (-0.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 82.1%
Defensive zone
Acciari 77.8%
Neutral zone
Acciari 53.3%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 62.3%
37.7%
62.3%
Nelson
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Nelson
Acciari
Last 7: Nelson 3-4 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Acciari
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
4
Nelson
Acciari
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Acciari
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
53.0% (285)
-2.3%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
31.3% (16)
+27.3%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
50.8% (183)
-7.4%
On power play, Nelson has a +27.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Nelson is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Nelson shoots left. Acciari is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (377).
Home / Away
Nelson
Acciari
Home
52.3% (621)
53.2% (267)
Away
48.9% (618)
49.3% (217)
By Period
Nelson
Acciari
P1
48.4%
53.1%
P2
53.5%
51.1%
P3
50.3%
50.6%
OT
41.2%
40.0%
Final 5 min
50.8%
52.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
51.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:48 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |