Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 17 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Acciari 51.3% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Acciari leads 28-10 in 38 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 84.1%
Defensive zone
Acciari 67.3%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.9%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.2%
53.2%
46.8%
Nelson
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
28
(38 meetings)
10
28
Nelson
Acciari
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
7
4
Nelson
Acciari
11 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
1
16
Nelson
Acciari
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Acciari
2
8
Nelson
Acciari
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
52.8% (3,276)
-4.9%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
48.2% (85)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
47.1% (1,061)
-3.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +6.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Acciari is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (3,236).
Home / Away
Nelson
Acciari
Home
50.0% (5,845)
52.0% (2,115)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
50.7% (2,307)
By Period
Nelson
Acciari
P1
48.7%
52.2%
P2
48.5%
51.5%
P3
47.7%
50.5%
OT
45.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:43 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 16:20 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 11:11 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 2 | 03:30 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 06:03 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 05:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 1 | 00:48 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 04:04 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 01:57 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 06:04 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:15 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 09:10 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:17 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 17:13 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 05:23 | Neutral | Noel Acciari |