Scouting Report
Noel Acciari holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Acciari on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Acciari shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Acciari 53.2% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 84.4%
Defensive zone
Acciari 80.7%
Neutral zone
Acciari 54.0%
Result
Noel Acciari favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Nelson
Acciari
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Nelson
Acciari
Last 6: Nelson 1-5 Acciari
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Acciari
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Acciari
0
4
Nelson
Acciari
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Acciari
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
56.7% (393)
-5.4%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
33.3% (3)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
48.0% (202)
+3.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Acciari shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Acciari is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (468).
Home / Away
Nelson
Acciari
Home
52.5% (590)
54.5% (279)
Away
51.7% (619)
53.0% (319)
By Period
Nelson
Acciari
P1
50.5%
56.9%
P2
54.4%
51.4%
P3
51.4%
53.2%
OT
47.4%
60.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
60.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Acciari
38.0%▼
46.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 17:02 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 14:02 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 09:19 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 2 | 16:41 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Offensive | Noel Acciari |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 1 | 04:04 | Defensive | Noel Acciari |