Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +8.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Byfield on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Byfield 44.6% (+8.0%)
H2H factor
Byfield leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Byfield 64.6%
Defensive zone
Byfield 62.3%
Neutral zone
Byfield 64.8%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
Nelson
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Nelson
Byfield
Last 7: Nelson 4-3 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Byfield
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
1
Nelson
Byfield
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Byfield
2
3
Nelson
Byfield
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
44.5% (853)
+6.8%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
42.9% (21)
+15.8%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
38.2% (68)
+13.7%
On power play, Nelson has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Nelson is 51.4% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Nelson shoots left. Byfield is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (629).
Home / Away
Nelson
Byfield
Home
52.5% (590)
43.8% (502)
Away
51.7% (619)
44.3% (440)
By Period
Nelson
Byfield
P1
50.5%
44.2%
P2
54.4%
43.0%
P3
51.4%
45.0%
OT
47.4%
46.2%
Final 5 min
57.3%
40.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
44.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:45 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 16:50 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 08:54 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 08:44 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 08:36 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 3 | 14:04 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 10, 2024 | 2 | 09:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |