Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Byfield on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 50.6% vs Byfield 45.4% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Byfield leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Byfield 73.9%
Defensive zone
Byfield 70.9%
Neutral zone
Byfield 67.2%
Result
Quinton Byfield favored at 70.7%
29.3%
70.7%
Nelson
Byfield
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Nelson
Byfield
Last 10: Nelson 3-7 Byfield
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
1
2
Nelson
Byfield
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Byfield
0
4
Nelson
Byfield
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Byfield
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Byfield
Edge
Even Strength
50.7% (879)
46.5% (759)
+4.2%
Power Play
58.6% (162)
50.0% (58)
+8.6%
Penalty Kill
43.4% (198)
35.1% (148)
+8.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Byfield shoots left. Nelson is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (803).
Nelson shoots left. Byfield is 43.6% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Home / Away
Nelson
Byfield
Home
52.3% (621)
46.2% (442)
Away
48.9% (618)
44.0% (523)
By Period
Nelson
Byfield
P1
48.4%
44.1%
P2
53.5%
43.5%
P3
50.3%
47.7%
OT
41.2%
39.3%
Final 5 min
50.8%
42.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
50.6%
Byfield
66.0%▲
56.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 10:45 | Neutral | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 03:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 18:45 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 2 | 09:58 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 08:13 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 2 | 01:27 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 18:27 | Defensive | Quinton Byfield |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 1 | 15:57 | Offensive | Quinton Byfield |