Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nelson wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 49.4% vs Lafferty 51.2% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.2%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 62.1%
Neutral zone
Nelson 53.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Nelson
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Nelson
Lafferty
Last 6: Nelson 3-3 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Lafferty
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Nelson
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
1
Nelson
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
48.5% (586)
53.5% (101)
-5.0%
Penalty Kill
57.5% (40)
25.0% (4)
+32.5%
On penalty kill, Nelson has a +32.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Nelson is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (357).
Nelson shoots left. Lafferty is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (75).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lafferty
Home
55.0% (362)
50.0% (62)
Away
43.5% (345)
55.8% (43)
By Period
Nelson
Lafferty
P1
49.3%
70.0%
P2
53.6%
37.8%
P3
46.0%
52.6%
Final 5 min
48.7%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
49.4%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 13:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 00:53 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |