Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 51.9% vs Lafferty 50.4% (+1.5%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 63.2%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 59.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.2%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 52.2%
52.2%
47.8%
Nelson
Lafferty
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (1,002)
50.7% (144)
+0.6%
Power Play
58.7% (126)
50.0% (2)
+8.7%
Penalty Kill
51.9% (81)
50.0% (10)
+1.9%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Nelson is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (372).
Nelson shoots left. Lafferty is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lafferty
Home
52.5% (590)
53.2% (62)
Away
51.7% (619)
48.9% (94)
By Period
Nelson
Lafferty
P1
50.5%
53.3%
P2
54.4%
46.7%
P3
51.4%
52.8%
Final 5 min
57.3%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
52.1%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
50.6%