Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.3% vs 47.4%). Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 9 meetings). Nelson wins 47.0% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 48.3% vs Lafferty 47.6% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Lafferty leads 8-8 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Nelson 68.7%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 69.1%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 50.4%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Nelson
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
8
(16 meetings)
8
8
Nelson
Lafferty
Last 10: Nelson 4-6 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
6
3
Nelson
Lafferty
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
3
Nelson
Lafferty
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Nelson
Lafferty
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
47.9% (9,695)
48.0% (1,413)
-0.1%
Power Play
54.5% (1,132)
45.7% (46)
+8.8%
Penalty Kill
43.8% (783)
43.5% (184)
+0.3%
On power play, Nelson has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Nelson is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (4,075).
Nelson shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lafferty
Home
50.0% (5,845)
47.3% (833)
Away
46.5% (5,766)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Nelson
Lafferty
P1
48.7%
49.4%
P2
48.5%
43.1%
P3
47.7%
49.8%
OT
45.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.8%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
48.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 27, 2021 | 3 | 01:14 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 13:34 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 11:48 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 3 | 00:53 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Feb 20, 2021 | 2 | 15:28 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Feb 18, 2021 | 1 | 02:18 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 3 | 09:08 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 21, 2019 | 2 | 06:06 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 3 | 17:33 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Nov 19, 2019 | 1 | 08:49 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |