Scouting Report
Brock Nelson holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 43.3% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 61.1%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 69.4%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 61.9%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 61.1%
38.9%
61.1%
Nelson
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Nelson
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
2
Nelson
Lafferty
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
42.6% (324)
+3.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
31.3% (16)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
43.8% (16)
-13.4%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Nelson is 43.3% vs right-shot opponents (240).
Nelson shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lafferty
Home
48.7% (419)
40.9% (181)
Away
41.3% (368)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Nelson
Lafferty
P1
44.6%
42.2%
P2
47.3%
36.4%
P3
43.0%
48.6%
Final 5 min
39.4%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2023 | 3 | 04:06 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 15, 2023 | 2 | 08:55 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |