Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 47.5% vs Lafferty 50.9% (-3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 75.3%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 75.5%
Neutral zone
Nelson 59.6%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 53.1%
53.1%
46.9%
Nelson
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Nelson
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
1
0
Nelson
Lafferty
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Nelson
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Nelson
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
46.9% (915)
52.2% (366)
-5.3%
Power Play
57.4% (94)
60.0% (15)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (28)
46.2% (104)
-21.2%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Nelson is 46.9% vs right-shot opponents (324).
Nelson shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Nelson
Lafferty
Home
48.9% (521)
53.1% (258)
Away
45.5% (516)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Nelson
Lafferty
P1
45.9%
52.5%
P2
48.0%
49.7%
P3
48.0%
51.3%
OT
33.3%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
47.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 14:58 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 11:44 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |