Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (45.2% vs 45.0%). Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Steel shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Steel 46.6% (+0.2%)
Offensive zone
Nelson 67.2%
Defensive zone
Steel 66.0%
Neutral zone
Nelson 52.1%
Result
Brock Nelson favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Nelson
Steel
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Steel
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
44.6% (177)
+1.5%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
66.7% (3)
-32.2%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
44.8% (29)
-14.4%
On power play, Steel has a +32.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Steel shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Steel is 39.4% vs left-shot opponents (109).
Home / Away
Nelson
Steel
Home
48.7% (419)
46.7% (90)
Away
41.3% (368)
43.7% (119)
By Period
Nelson
Steel
P1
44.6%
47.8%
P2
47.3%
47.0%
P3
43.0%
41.3%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
39.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Steel
50.0%▬
49.0%
45.0%